Summary
The many contradictory national polls tracking the presidential election should remind voters these broad-stroke survey results are often deeply flawed forecasters as to who will win in November.
Our presidents are chosen by an electoral vote system, not on the basis of a national popular vote - otherwise (Supreme Court ruling aside) Al Gore would be president. The electoral system is based on population and the number of House and Senate seats each state has - 535 votes plus three for the District of Columbia. You want to be president? Carry enough states to win a majority of the 538 electoral votes and be declared the winner.See the full content of this document
Extract
Parsing the Polls
That's why it's wise to ignore the generalized national polls and follow the specific surveys in each of the most competitive battleground states. They are a far more accurate measurement of who's ahead.
The big underrepo...See the full content of this document
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