Summary
Political mathematicians postulate frequently these days about who will win majority status in Congress this November. Yet a rational look at the numbers suggests the Democrats are using fuzzy math in their calculations. While the equation yielding a new Senate Democratic majority is theoretically possible, Republicans retain some formidable advantages. In the House, Democrats need more magic than math. Despite some heroic assumptions, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's abacas won't have enough beads to make her speaker.
Democratic hopes were buoyed in March, when Democrat Ben Chandler captured a special election, replacing Rep. Ernie Fletcher, who was elected governor in Kentucky - the first special election victory by House Democrats since 1991. Two weeks ago, Stephanie Herseth of South Dakota narrowly won a bid to replace Republican Bill Janklow, who resigned. Then, as if to confirm these two wins, last week Democrats trumpeted a Los Angeles Times poll showing they had a 19- point lead in the generic congressional ballot. Mrs. Pelosi even convened a special meeting of Democrats this past Tuesday to convince them her rhetoric was rational.See the full content of this document
Extract
Majority Math ; Numbers Games in November
Arguing the political sands are shifting is a favorite Democratic parlor game. Yet recent events are more circumstantial than indicative of a trend. Both Democrats ran previously and carr...
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