Summary
If, as expected, the Federal Reserve's policy-making committee raises its short-term target interest rate another quarter-point today, it will mark the 16th consecutive policy meeting over the past two years at which the Fed has taken that precise action. In June 2004, when the Fed began raising the federal-funds rate, that target interest rate stood at 1 percent. Today, it will almost certainly reach 5 percent. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recently told the congressional Joint Economic Committee that the Fed "may decide to take no action at one or more meetings in the interest of allowing more time to receive information relevant to the outlook." He hastened to add that the Fed "will not hesitate to act when it determines that doing so is needed to foster the achievement of the Federal Reserve's mandated objectives."
Given the time lags during which changes in monetary policy slowly and cumulatively work their way through the economy and given the fact that the target rate will have been raised 4 percentage points over two years, it is understandable why the Fed "at some point in the future," in Mr. Bernanke's words, would consider pausing. We certainly do not interpret his remarks to signal dovish intentions on the inflation front.See the full content of this document
Extract
Interest Rates
Despite the Fed's tightening, inflationary pressures continue to manifest ...
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