Tehran Holds Obama Re-Election Wild Card ; Mullahs Could Hurt President with Pre-Election Middle East Disruption

Summary

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The formal end of the U.S. war in Iraq on Thursday enhanced neighboring Iran as a major, unpredictable factor in the U.S. presidential election of 2012. First, a look back: Iran's mullahs already had one opportunity to affect American politics, in 1980. Their seizure and occupation of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran for 444 days haunted President Carter's re-election campaign and - thanks to such developments as yellow ribbons, a "Rose Garden" strategy, a failed rescue operation and ABC's "America Held Hostage" program - contributed to his defeat. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini rebuffed Mr. Carter's hopes for an "October surprise" release of the hostages and twisted the knife one final time by freeing them exactly as Ronald Reagan took the presidential oath.

Today, Iran has two potential roles in President Obama's re- election campaign, as disrupter in Iraq or as target of U.S. attacks. Let's look at each of them:

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Tehran Holds Obama Re-Election Wild Card ; Mullahs Could Hurt President with Pre-Election Middle East Disruption

Who lost Iraq? Although George W. Bush's administration signed the status-of-forces agreement with the Iraqi government, stipulating, "All the United States Forces shall withdraw from all ...

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